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<(Times New RomanPS*uTTextRulers.StdRulerDescTextRulers.RulerDescTextRulers.StdStyleDescTextRulers.StyleDescZTextRulers.AttributesDesc$0ZGoMark, Stats, Car and Travel
Mark is taking a stat course. He believes he will
get an A, B, and C or less with probabilities of
0.35, 0.55, and 0.1 respectively. At the end of semester
he will get a car as a present form his rich uncle depending
on his class performance. For an A he will get a car with
probability 0.8, for B with probability 0.5, and for C or less with probability 0.3.
If Mark gets a car, he will travel to Tampa or Savannah with
equal probabilities of 0.4, or stay on campus with probability
of 0.2. If he does not get a car, these probabilities are 0.3, 0.1,
and 0.6 respectively.
After semester was over you learn that Mark left for Savannah.
What is the probability that his grade was C or less.
What is the probability that he got a car?
model{
grade ~ dcat(p.grade[]);
gradea<- equals(grade,1); gradeb <- equals(grade,2); gradec<- equals(grade,3);
car ~ dcat(p.car[grade,]);
nocar<- equals(car,1); yescar<- equals(car,2);
travel~ dcat(p.travel[car,]);
tampa<- equals(travel,1); savanah <- equals(travel,2); campus<- equals(travel,3);
}
DATA
list(
travel = 2,
p.grade=c(0.35, 0.55, 0.10),
p.car = structure( .Data = c(0.2, 0.8,
0.5, 0.5,
0.7, 0.3),
.Dim=c(3,2)),
p.travel = structure( .Data = c(0.3, 0.1, 0.6,
0.4, 0.4, 0.2),
.Dim=c(2,3)))
GENERATE INITSTextControllers.StdCtrlDescTextControllers.ControllerDescContainers.ControllerDescControllers.ControllerDesc aY?$0ZGo
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pk ~